|
In the light of ethnogenetic and civilizational theories of human development
Vakhi Surkho for SIA CHECHENPRESS, May, 3rd 08.
The next stage is a rise in the passionarity which is characterised by the rise in the greater and greater part of a people when more and more passionaries appear from its midst. This is the period from Sheik Mansur to Dzhokhar Dudaev. It is characterised by a constant high of the energetic tension among the Chechen people and the appearance among them of a whole galaxy of outstanding popular leaders such as Taimi Bibulat, Shoip Tsontoroevsky, Saadulla Gekhinsky, Talkhig Shalinsky, Kunt-Khadzhi, Albig-Khadzhi, Zelimkhan Kharachoevsky, Khasan Israilov, Khasugi Magomadov and many others.
The culmination in the rise of passionarity is an overheating. It is characterised by the out-of-limit rise in the energy levels of the passionaries with the resulting suffering of the people and its neighbours. This is a very dangerous period, because the entire new emerging nation might burn down in the flame of its tension. This is why sensible leaders have always tried to direct outwards this internal energy which is burning everything down. This requires a dominant idea which would unite all energetic people (passionaries) and channel all their energies together. If this succeeds the consequences of the overheating for the nation itself could be minimal, in other words, quite positive in nature. Otherwise the uncontrollable force raging within a people deals it a huge blow, at times a grievous one, and the people dies destroyed by the fire of its own energy.
After the overheating if a nation has survived it and after the death of many passionaries, when the excess steam has been shed (with the same effect as blood letting) there comes the next akmatic (or historic) stage, the stage of ethno-genesis. The reduction in the number of passionaries who had hampered each other by competing with each other, leads to the situation when everyone begins to do what he is supposed to and the people get a chance to build its own state. This leads to a demographic and territorial expansion and to the strengthening of the military and economic might, creating a material foundation for future generations.
I think that the Chechens began to experience their energy overheating in 1998 during the Gudermess events and are still undergoing this process. It is a thankless task to evaluate ongoing processes because natural cataclysms are unpredictable. But to my mind there are already signs of the fact that the Chechens are withstanding the test of the passionary overheating and are close to entering the akmatic stage. The transition will occur around 2022-2023, give or take a couple of years. But Allah knows best.
When a nation reaches the peak of its energy development there is a period of collapse, characterised by powerful interethnic shifts, i.e. civil wars and other cataclysms. This is the limit of the energy tension of a nation. After that it carries on because of the momentum using the foundations laid by the passionary ancestors. This stage is called the inertia stage. It is a long stage similar to any inertia process. After that comes the obscuration stage when the bioenergy of the nation falls below zero, which marks the end of the ethno-genetic cycle.
A repeat explosion of passionarity or a genetic drifting into the inertia period could prolong the life of an aging people, or rather, to give birth to its assignee. If this does not happen, the nation dies.
Atomised fragments of the deceased nation – separate societies (teips, tukhums) are consumed by the neighbouring passionary peoples. If any of these societies succeed in isolating themselves from the rest, they become a relic which has preserved the tradition of the dead nation and which lives in harmony with its environment. In other words, it enters a frozen state and Allah willing, a new nation could be born on its basis through regeneration in some indeterminate time. I consider the Chechens a relic of an ancient nation which had died and which began its regeneration around the middle of the second millennium . Since the period of Tamerlane’s campaigns in the Caucasus they had been going through a hidden incubation period, the period of passionary rise which later entered the open phase at the beginning of the 18th century, namely, from 1722, as mentioned earlier.
For the sake of visualisation let us compare the phases in the life of a people with the stages in the life of a man. The rhythm of an old man’s life cannot be compared with a child’s energy, young people are unpredictable in their adolescence (the overheating), the energy and productivity of a mature man is without rival (the akmaic stage), the middle age crisis is inevitable (the collapse). And, finally, in the old age there is a steady rhythm and a contemplative way of life with nostalgia about the past. No one can deny this, especially, as the theory of passionarity is based on the study of the histories of a huge number of nations of the world in the course of three thousand years, in other words, it has a scientific structure based on empirical analysis.
(To be continued)
|
